Sometimes there is no reason to overthink things. As such, I'm going back to Atlanta and laying the run again against Colorado. The Rockies enter this series as one of the worst teams in baseball, including an ugly 25-46 record away from Coors Field. Atlanta, meanwhile, sits at 81-55 and has been outstanding at Truist Park, where the Braves are 47-23. Bottom line - there remains a substantial gulf in quality. Sunday's pitching matchup doesn't give me much reason to believe Colorado suddenly closes it.

The Rockies are expected to hand the ball to Mason Adams, who has made only a brief appearance at the major-league level this season. Adams has pitched in 4 innings against an ailing Washington. Asking an inexperienced arm to navigate Atlanta's lineup on the road is hardly an enviable assignment, nor the same proposition. Atlanta counters with Tyler Mahle. His numbers aren't spectacular with a 5-10 record and mid 4's ERA, but that's almost secondary to the handicap. The Braves don't need elite pitching to justify this play. They need competent innings while their lineup takes advantage of an inferior Colorado club and all its vulnerabilities. Atlanta has been excellent at home, Colorado has struggled badly on the road, and the Braves possess the offensive firepower to create separation. Rather than swallow yet another substantial moneyline price, I'll lay the run again to get the Braves at even money.

Rockies vs Braves prediction: Atlanta -1.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.